Monday, October 27, 2008

Инфляция - текст из Investopedia с русскоязычными экваивалентами сложных фраз

During World War II, you could buy a loaf of bread for $0.15, a new car for less than $1,000 and an average house for around $5,000. In the twenty-first century, bread, cars, houses and just about everything else cost more. A lot more. Clearly, we've experienced (вкусили/пережили) a significant (показательную/существенную) amount of inflation over the last 60 years.

When inflation surged to double-digit levels (повысился до уровня двузначных чисел) in the mid- to late-1970s, Americans declared it public enemy No.1. Since then, public anxiety (беспокойство/тревоги/забота) has abated along with (ослабло вместе с) inflation, but people remain fearful of (до сих пор опасаются) inflation, even at the minimal levels we've seen over the past few years. Although it's common knowledge (хотя всем известно) that prices go up over time (с течением времени), the general population doesn't understand the forces behind (силы/факторы, стоящие за) inflation.

What causes (становится причиной/вызывает) inflation? How does it affect (влияет) your standard of living (уровень жизни)?

Inflation is defined as (инфляцию определяют как/под «инфляцией» понимают) a sustained increase (непрерывное повышение) in the general level of prices for goods and services. It is measured (она измеряется) as an annual percentage increase. As inflation rises, every dollar you own (каждый принадлежащий вам доллар) buys a smaller percentage of a good or service.

The value (ценность) of a dollar does not stay constant (постоянной) when there is inflation. The value of a dollar is observed in terms of purchasing power (ценность доллара отслеживается по покупательной способности), which is the real, tangible (осязаемые/материальные) goods that money can buy. When inflation goes up, there is a decline (уменьшение/сокращение) in the purchasing power of money. For example, if the inflation rate (тем инфляции) is 2% annually, then theoretically a $1 pack of gum will cost $1.02 in a year. After inflation, your dollar can't buy the same goods it could beforehand (ранее).

There are several variations on inflation:
• Deflation (дефляция) is when the general level of prices is falling. This is the opposite of inflation.
• Hyperinflation is unusually rapid inflation. In extreme cases, this can lead to the breakdown (полному упадку) of a nation's monetary system (денежной системы). One of the most notable examples (ярких примеров) of hyperinflation occurred (имел место) in Germany in 1923, when prices rose 2,500% in one month!
• Stagflation (стагфляция) is the combination of high unemployment and economic stagnation (экономического застоя) with inflation. This happened in industrialized countries during the 1970s, when a bad economy was combined with OPEC raising oil prices.
In recent years, most developed countries have attempted (пытаются) to sustain (поддерживать) an inflation rate of 2-3%.


Causes of Inflation
There is no one cause that's universally agreed upon, but at least two theories are generally accepted (единого мнения о причинах инфляции нет, но существует по меньшей мере 2 широко распространенных теории):

Demand-Pull Inflation (инфляция спроса/инфляция, вызываемая избыточным спросом) - This theory can be summarized as "too much money chasing too few goods". In other words, if demand (спрос) is growing faster than supply (предложение), prices will increase. This usually occurs in growing economies.

Cost-Push Inflation (инфляция издержек/инфляция, вызываемая ростом издержек производства) - When companies' costs go up, they need to increase prices to maintain (поддержать) their profit margins (доля прибыли в цене). Increased costs can include things such as wages, taxes, or increased costs of imports.

Costs of Inflation
Almost everyone thinks inflation is evil (зло), but it isn't necessarily so. Inflation affects different people in different ways. It also depends on whether inflation is anticipated (ожидаема) or unanticipated (непредвиденная). If the inflation rate corresponds to what the majority of people are expecting (соответствует ожиданиям большинства людей), then we can compensate and the cost isn't high. For example, banks can vary their interest rates and workers can negotiate (договариваться об условиях) contracts that include automatic wage hikes (увеличение зарплаты) as the price level goes up.

Problems arise when there is unanticipated inflation:
• Creditors (заимодавцы) lose and debtors (должники) gain (оказываются в выигрыше) if the lender does not anticipate inflation correctly. For those who borrow, this is similar to getting an interest-free loan (аналогично получению беспроцентной ссуды).
• Uncertainty (неуверенность) about what will happen next makes corporations and consumers less likely to spend. This hurts economic output (объем производства) in the long run (в долгосрочном плане).
• People living off a fixed-income (живущие на фиксированный доход), such as retirees (пенсионеры), see a decline (снижение/сокращение) in their purchasing power (покупательская способность) and, consequently (соответственно), their standard of living (уровня жизни).
• The entire (вся) economy must absorb (здесь: понести/взять на себя) repricing costs (расходы, связанные с перерасчетом) as price lists, labels, menus and more have to be updated (обновлены).
• If the inflation rate is greater than that of other countries, domestic products (продукты отечественного производства) become less competitive.
Finally, inflation is a sign that an economy is growing. In some situations, little inflation (or even deflation) can be just as bad as high inflation. The lack (отсутствие) of inflation may be an indication (показателем) that the economy is weakening (слабеет). As you can see, it's not so easy to label inflation as either good or bad - it depends on the overall economy as well as your personal situation.

Measuring inflation is a difficult problem for government statisticians. To do this, a number of goods that are representative of the economy are put together into what is referred to as a "market basket." (ряд товаров, дающих представление об экономике, слагаются в так называемую «рыночную корзину»). The cost of this basket is then compared (сравнивается) over time. This results in a price index (таким образом получается индекс цен), which is the cost of the market basket today as a percentage of the cost of that identical basket in the starting year (базисном году).

In North America, there are two main price indexes that measure inflation:

You can think of price indexes as large surveys (обзоры). Each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (американское бюро статистики труда) contacts thousands of retail stores, service establishments (предприятия сферы обслуживания), rental units (жилье для сдачи в аренду) and doctors' offices to obtain (для получения) price information on thousands of items (товаров) used to track and measure (для отслеживания и измерения) price changes in the CPI (индексе потребительских цен). They record (ведут учет) the prices of about 80,000 items each month, which represent a scientifically selected sample (научно обоснованную выборку) of the prices paid by consumers for the goods and services purchased.

In the long run, the various PPIs (индексы цен производителей) and the CPI show a similar rate of inflation. This is not the case in the short run, as PPIs often increase before the CPI. In general, investors follow (следят за) the CPI more than the PPIs.
Whenever you hear the latest inflation update on the news, chances are that interest rates (ставки учетного процента) are mentioned in the same breath (одновременно).

In the United States, interest rates are decided by the Federal Reserve (федеральный Резерв [исполняет роль центрального банка в США]). The Fed meets eight times a year to set short-term interest rate targets (для установления ставки процента по краткосрочным ссудам). During these meetings, the CPI and PPIs are significant factors in the Fed's decision.

Interest rates directly affect the credit market (loans) because higher interest rates make borrowing more costly. By changing interest rates, the Fed tries to achieve (достичь) maximum employment (занятости), stable prices and a good level growth. As interest rates drop (падают), consumer spending (потребительские расходы) increases, and this in turn (в свою очередь) stimulates economic growth.
Contrary to popular belief (вопреки принятому мнению), excessive (излишний) economic growth can in fact be very detrimental (губительным). At one extreme, an economy that is growing too fast can experience hyperinflation, resulting in the problems we mentioned earlier. At the other extreme, an economy with no inflation has essentially stagnated. The right level of economic growth, and thus inflation, is somewhere in the middle. It's the Fed's job to maintain that delicate balance (поддерживать неустойчивое равновесие). A tightening (ужесточение), or rate increase, attempts to head off (не допустить) future inflation. An easing (смягчение), or rate decrease, aims to spur on (подстегнуть/стимулировать) economic growth.

Keep in mind (учтите) that while (хотя) inflation is a major issue, it is not the only factor informing the Fed's decisions on interest rates. For example, the Fed might ease interest rates during a financial crisis to provide liquidity to U.S. financial markets, thus preventing (таким образом предотвратив) a market meltdown (обвал рынка).

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